Entre octobre 2025 et avril 2026, l’Afrique centrale et de l’Ouest s’apprête à vivre une séquence politique inédite : cinq présidents parmi les plus anciens du continent brigueront, chacun, un nouveau mandat. Paul Biya au Cameroun, Alassane Ouattara en Côte d’Ivoire, Yoweri Museveni en Ouganda, Denis Sassou Nguesso au Congo-Brazzaville et Ismaïl Omar Guelleh à Djibouti. Certes, Sassou et Guelleh n’ont pas encore officialisé leur candidature, mais rares sont ceux qui doutent de leur volonté de prolonger leur règne.
Des âges avancés, une longévité exceptionnelle
Le plus jeune de ces “candidats du long cours” a 77 ans ; le plus âgé, Paul Biya, atteint 92 ans. Tous cumulent plusieurs décennies de pouvoir, parfois plus longues que l’espérance de vie moyenne dans leurs pays respectifs. Biya règne depuis 1982, Museveni depuis 1986, Sassou alterne au pouvoir depuis 1979, Guelleh depuis 1999, et Ouattara, arrivé en 2011, s’apprête à briguer un quatrième mandat malgré les vives contestations de l’opposition.
Le paradoxe de la stabilité et de l’immobilisme
Pour leurs partisans, ces dirigeants incarnent la stabilité face aux incertitudes régionales : menace terroriste au Sahel, instabilité des institutions, crises sécuritaires. Mais pour leurs opposants, ils symbolisent l’immobilisme, l’accaparement du pouvoir et l’étouffement des alternatives démocratiques. Cette longévité politique nourrit un paradoxe : la continuité rassure certains, mais elle empêche le renouvellement et accentue la défiance des jeunes générations.
L’ombre des révisions constitutionnelles
Tous ont usé, à un moment ou un autre, de révisions constitutionnelles ou d’interprétations favorables des textes pour se maintenir. Ce phénomène, que les politologues qualifient de “constitutionnalisme opportuniste”, reste un obstacle majeur à l’enracinement démocratique sur le continent. La Commission de l’Union africaine, bien que régulièrement interpellée, peine à sanctionner ces pratiques, ce qui conforte les chefs d’État dans leur stratégie de longévité.
Quel avenir pour la relève ?
Ces élections à venir posent une question centrale : quelle place pour une véritable alternance démocratique dans ces pays ? La jeunesse, majoritaire dans la démographie africaine, observe avec scepticisme ce scénario de “présidences à vie”. Le risque est grand que ces scrutins renforcent l’idée d’un verrouillage politique, susceptible d’alimenter frustrations sociales et contestations violentes.
Avec Jeune-Afrique
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